Evolutionary inferences are usually based on statistical models that compare mean genotypes and phenotypes (or their frequencies) among populations. An alternative is to use the actual distribution of genotypes and phenotypes to infer the “exchangeability” of individuals among populations. We illustrate this approach by using discriminant functions on principal components to classify individuals among paired lake and stream populations of threespine stickleback in each of six independent watersheds. Classification based on neutral and non-neutral microsatellite markers was highest to the population of origin and next-highest to populations in the same watershed. These patterns are consistent with the influence of historical contingency (separate colonization of each watershed) and subsequent gene flow (within but not between watersheds). In comparison to this low genetic exchangeability, ecological (diet) and morphological (trophic and armor traits) exchangeability was relatively high – particularly among populations from similar habitats. These patterns reflect the role of natural selection in driving parallel changes adaptive changes when independent populations colonize similar habitats. Importantly, however, substantial non-parallelism was also evident. Our results show that analyses based on exchangeability can confirm inferences based on statistical analyses of means or frequencies, while also refining insights into the drivers of – and constraints on – evolutionary diversification.
Usage Notes:
Ecological_data
Data on stomach contents (benthic versus limnetic) and stable isotopes for individual stickleback collected from 12 populations (six lake-stream pairs) on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada.
Genotype_data
Data on microsatellite genotypes for individual stickleback collected from 12 populations (six lake-stream pairs) on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada.
Morphological_data
Data on morphological traits for individual stickleback collected from 12 populations (six lake-stream pairs) on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada.