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Bourret, Audrey; Garant, Dany 2016-08-26 Quantitative genetics approaches, and particularly animal models, are widely used to assess the genetic (co)variance of key fitness related traits and infer adaptive potential of wild populations. Despite the importance of precision and accuracy of genetic variance estimates and their potential sensitivity to various ecological and population specific factors, their reliability is rarely tested explicitly. Here, we used simulations and empirical data collected from an 11-year study on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), a species showing a high rate of extra-pair paternity and a low recruitment rate, to assess the importance of identity errors, structure and size of the pedigree on quantitative genetic estimates in our dataset. Our simulations revealed an important lack of precision in heritability and genetic-correlation estimates for most traits, a low power to detect significant effects and important identifiability problems. We also observed a large bias in heritability estimates when using the social pedigree instead of the genetic one (deflated heritabilities) or when not accounting for an important cause of resemblance among individuals (for example, permanent environment or brood effect) in model parameterizations for some traits (inflated heritabilities). We discuss the causes underlying the low reliability observed here and why they are also likely to occur in other study systems. Altogether, our results re-emphasize the difficulties of generalizing quantitative genetic estimates reliably from one study system to another and the importance of reporting simulation analyses to evaluate these important issues. https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
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Bourret, Audrey; Garant, Dany 2015-08-11 Monitoring and predicting evolutionary changes underlying current environmental modifications are complex challenges. Recent approaches to achieve these objectives include assessing the genetic variation and effects of candidate genes on traits indicating adaptive potential. In birds, for example, short tandem repeat polymorphism at four candidate genes (CLOCK, NPAS2, ADCYAP1, and CREB1) has been linked to variation in phenological traits such as laying date and timing of migration. However, our understanding of their importance as evolutionary predictors is still limited, mainly because the extent of genotype–environment interactions (GxE) related to these genes has yet to be assessed. Here, we studied a population of Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) over 4 years in southern Québec (Canada) to assess the relationships between those four candidate genes and two phenological traits related to reproduction (laying date and incubation duration) and also determine the importance of GxE in this system. Our results showed that NPAS2 female genotypes were nonrandomly distributed across the study system and formed a longitudinal cline with longer genotypes located to the east. We observed relationships between length polymorphism at all candidate genes and laying date and/or incubation duration, and most of these relationships were affected by environmental variables (breeding density, latitude, or temperature). In particular, the positive relationships detected between laying date and both CLOCK and NPAS2 female genotypes were variable depending on breeding density. Our results suggest that all four candidate genes potentially affect timing of breeding in birds and that GxE are more prevalent and important than previously reported in this context.
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Bourret, Audrey; Bélisle, Marc; Pelletier, Fanie; Garant, Dany 2016-12-20 Despite accumulating examples of selection acting on heritable traits in the wild, predicted evolutionary responses are often different from observed phenotypic trends. Various explanations have been suggested for these mismatches. These include within-individual changes across lifespan that can create important variation in genetic architecture of traits and selection acting on them, but also potential problems with the methodological approach used to predict evolutionary responses of traits. Here, we used an 8-year data set on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to first assess the effects of differences among three nestling life-history stages on the genetic (co)variances of two morphological traits (body mass and primary feather length) and the selection acting on them over three generations. We then estimated the evolutionary potential of these traits by predicting their evolutionary responses using the breeder's equation and the secondary theorem of selection approaches. Our results showed variation in strength and direction of selection and slight changes in trait variance across ages. Predicted evolutionary responses differed importantly between both approaches for half of the trait–age combinations we studied, suggesting the presence of environmentally induced correlations between focal traits and fitness possibly biasing breeder's equation predictions. Our results emphasize that predictions of evolutionary potential for morphological traits are likely to be highly variable, both in strength and direction, depending on the life stage and method used, thus mitigating our capacity to predict adaptation and persistence of wild populations.

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