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Data for: Global change risks a threatened species due to alteration of predator-prey dynamics
Labadie, Guillemette; Hardy, Clément; Boulanger, Yan; Vanlandeghem, Virginie; Hebblewhite, Mark; Fortin, Daniel — 2023-03-01 <p>Datasets generated and analyzed within the study area located in the Côte-Nord region of Québec, Canada. To identify species-specific movement rules that were implemented in the IBM, we used empirical data collected for caribou, moose, and wolves over the study area.</p> <p>"DataFinal_SSF_Species_season.csv" (6 files) were used to develop Step Selection Functions for caribou, moose, and wolves to assess habitat selection. <span lang="EN-CA">SSFs</span><span lang="EN-CA"> were estimated from data for the real animals and provide the relative probability of selection among a set of options based on the comparison of observed and random steps (i.e., the linear segment between successive locations at 8-h interval) using conditional</span><span lang="EN-CA"> logistic regression </span><span lang="EN-CA">(Fortin et al. 2005). Details on GPS data and SSF models can be found in the article in Appendix S1: Section S2. </span></p> <p>SSFs compare resource characteristics of observed (scored 1) and random (scored 0) locations presented in column case. Habitat characteristics (columns conif_dense, conif_open, mixed, open, other, fire010, fire1020, fire20, cut010, cut1020, cut20) was extracted from the Canadian National Forest Inventory (NFI) forest cover maps. Land cover maps were updated every year by adding roads, recent (&lt;5 years), regenerating (6–20 years) and old (21–50 years) cutblocks/fires based on information provided annually by local forestry companies and from the Canadian National Fire Database (CNFDB).  Columns dist0_0.25, dist0.25_0.50, dist0.5_1.00, dist1.00_1.5, and dist1.5 are a set of 5 dichotomous covariables representing the classes of distance to the nearest road (i.e., 1) ≤250 m, 2) 251–500 m, 3) 501–1000 m, 4) 1001–1500 m and 5) &gt;1500 m as the reference category).</p> <p>"DataFinal_IBM_Caribou_Season.csv" (2 files) corresponded to the IBM outputs with the proportion of caribou agent killed (Prop.Caribou_killed, number of caribou killed/total number of caribou), in function of the different scenarios (CC,LUC,Year,Season,Scenario) and the response (Behavioral-Numerical responses or Behavioral response). The columns Prop.CutsRoads, Prop.Fire, Prop.Broadleaf, Homogenization, Isolation correspond to the different variable we tested to predict the cumulative impact of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. To explore how changes in forest structure and composition impacted the proportion of caribou killed, we used the proportion of areas disturbed by cuts and roads (Prop.CutsRoads), burned areas (Prop.Fire), and landscape characteristics, such as the proportion of deciduous vegetation (Prop.Broadleaf), landscape homogenization (Homogenization) and isolation (Isolation) of mature conifer stands.</p> https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
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Files necessary to run LANDIS simulations for the Hereford forest and the Forêt Montmorency in Québec, Canada
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Boulanger, Yan; Labadie, Guillemette; Tremblay, Junior; Cadieux, Philippe; Moreau, Lucas; Bognounou, Fidele; Thiffault, Evelyne; Cyr, Dominic; Stralberg, Diana; Grondin, Pierre — 2024-03-06 <p>The combination of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance can cause major changes in forest bird assemblages. Assessing the cumulative effects of forest management and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and storage and provisioning of wood products is key to informing forest management and conservation decision-making. Specifically, we projected changes in forest composition and structure according to various forest management strategies under a changing climate using LANDIS-II for two case study areas of Quebec (Canada): a hemiboreal (Hereford Forest) and a boreal (Montmorency Forest) area. Then, we assessed projected bird assemblage changes, as well as sensitive and at-risk species. As part of an integrated assessment, we evaluated the best possible management measures aimed at preserving avian diversity and compared them with optimal options for mitigation of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Forest management and climate change were projected to lead to significant changes in bird assemblages in both types of forest through changes in forest composition. We projected an increase in deciduous vegetation which favored species associated with mixed and deciduous stands to the detriment of species associated with older, coniferous forests. Changes were more pronounced in Hereford Forest than Montmorency Forest. In addition, Hereford’s bird assemblages were mainly affected by climate change, while those in Montmorency Forest were more impacted by forest management. We estimated that 25% of Hereford and 6% of Montmorency species will be sensitive to climate change, with projected abundance changes (positive or negative) exceeding 25%. According to the simulations, a decrease in the level of forest harvesting could benefit bird conservation and contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions in the boreal forest area. Conversely, the hemiboreal forest area requires trade-offs, as mitigation of carbon emissions is favored by more intensive forest management that stimulates the growth and carbon sequestration of otherwise stagnant stands.</p> <p>This repository includes all files necessary to run the LANDIS simulations, including the executables.</p>
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The umbrella value of caribou management strategies for biodiversity conservation in boreal forests under global change
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Labadie, Guillemette; Bouderbala, Ilhem; Boulanger, Yan; Béland, Jean-Michel; Hébert, Christian; Allard, Antoine; Hebblewhite, Mark; Fortin, Daniel — 2023-11-15 <p><span lang="EN-CA">Single-species conservation management is often proposed to preserve biodiversity in human-disturbed landscapes. How global change will impact the umbrella value of single-species management strategies remains an open question of critical conservation importance. We assessed the effectiveness of threatened boreal caribou as an umbrella for bird and beetle conservation under global change. We combined mechanistic, spatially explicit models of forest dynamics and predator-prey interactions to forecast the impact of management strategies on the survival of boreal caribou in boreal forest. We then used predictive models of species occupancy to characterize concurrent impacts on bird and beetle diversity. Landscapes were simulated based on three scenarios of climate change and four of forest management. We found that strategies that best mitigate human impact on boreal caribou were an effective umbrella for maintaining bird and beetle assemblages. While we detected a stronger effect of land-use change compared to climate change, the umbrella value of management strategies for caribou habitat conservation were still impacted by the severity of climate change. Our results showed an interplay among changes in forest attributes, boreal caribou mortality, as well as bird and beetle species assemblages. The conservation status of some species mandates the development of recovery strategies, highlighting the importance of our study which shows that single-species conservation can have important umbrella benefits despite global change.</span></p>
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Insect-mediated apparent competition between mammals in a boreal food web
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Labadie, Guillemette; McLoughlin, Philip D.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Fortin, Daniel — 2021-06-21 <p>Datasets generated and analyzed within the study area located in the Côte-Nord region of Québec, Canada. "DataFinal_Vegetation.csv" was used to evaluate the availability of deciduous vegetation (column <em>Cover_Deciduous</em>) in stands impacted by the spruce budworm (SBW, severity index values presented in column <em>SBW_SevCum</em>) outbreak and test our prediction that the reduction in canopy cover caused by SBW in coniferous stands would result in greater deciduous vegetation. We determined the percentage cover of deciduous vegetation for two height strata ([0-1m] and [1-3m] classes, column <em>Stratum</em>).</p> <p>"DataFinal_Moose_density.csv" was used to assess the influence of SBW outbreak (<em>SBW_SevCum</em>) on moose abundance by comparing moose densities (<em>Density</em>) before (<em>year </em>= 2006) and during SBW outbreak (<em>year </em>= 2018). We also determined the effect of the percentage cover of deciduous vegetation (<em>Broadleaf</em>) and the percentage cover of salvage-logged forest stands (<em>SBW_cut_2018Factor</em>) on moose densities.</p> <p>"DataFinal_RSF_Caribou.csv" and "DataFinal_RSF_Wolves.csv" were used to develop Resource Selection Functions for caribou and wolves to assess habitat selection. RSFs compare resource characteristics of observed (scored 1) and random (scored 0) locations presented in column <em>case</em>. Habitat characteristics (<em>columns conif_dense, conif_open, mixed, open, other, burned0_5, burned6_20, burned21_, cut0_5, cut6_20, cut21_</em>) was extracted from the Canadian National Forest Inventory (NFI) forest cover maps. Land cover maps were updated every year by adding roads, recent (&lt;5 years), regenerating (6–20 years) and old (21–50 years) cutblocks/fires based on information provided annually by local forestry companies and from the Canadian National Fire Database (CNFDB). SBW outbreak was characterized by its cumulative severity (<em>SBW_SevCum</em>), and also if infested stands were logged (<em>SBW_Cut</em>). As our study focused on the survival of boreal caribou, we added the mortality status for each individual  (<em>DeadStatus, </em>remained alive throughout the study = 0, died = 1<em>) </em>and interaction terms (i.e. the multiplication of two columns) <em>Dead_SBW_SevCum </em>and <em>Dead_SBW_Cut. </em></p> <p>Finally, we used "DataFinal_SurvivalAnalysis.csv" to evaluate whether the proportion of natural (<em>Prop_burned</em>) and anthropogenic (<em>Prop_Cut0_5, Prop_Cut6_20, Prop_SBW_cut</em>) disturbances within winter home range had an effect on the mortality risk of caribou (determined with the mortality status column <em>Dead : </em>remained alive throughout the study = 0, died = 1). For this analysis, we determined the individual ID (<em>ID</em>), the years during they were monitored (<em>Year</em>), and the time was defined as the total period of monitoring for that individual (<em>Time</em>). </p>

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(Author: Labadie, Guillemette)

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